Hot Stocks To Buy For 2015: January 2014

Friday, January 31, 2014

Shoppers already lining up for Black Friday deals

Some shoppers refuse to lose out on a bargain — even if it means camping out 24/7 for more than a week.

Shoppers across the country are setting up camp in front of Best Buy electronics stores to snag the best deals on Black Friday.

Intrepid consumers started lining up Monday at a Best Buy in suburban Akron.

Jonas Allooh was first in line, putting up his 10-person tent to simulate the comforts of home: bed, generator, space heater, TV, game console and microwave oven. Allooh, who graduated in August from Kent State University with a doctorate in audiology, has some time on his hands as he looks for a job.

Camping out for Black Friday deals has become a tradition for him, he says. He's been doing it for four years with his buddies, who've been doing it for about seven years, he says.

"They are seasoned pros," he says about his friends. "We've got a propane heater. And we threw a tarp over the tent to keep out the cold. And we have lots and lots of blankets."

The hearty shoppers have created a community of people camping out until the post-Thanksgiving sales.

Allooh and his two brothers — they're identical triplets — and their friends were eager to be first in line, so Allooh set up camp on Monday. Since then, shoppers have erected two more tents.

Allooh is eyeing a 27-inch computer monitor and some gifts for "someone who doesn't know what we are getting her." It's his mom, Molly Sebring, who laughed talking about her son's urban camping adventure.

Still, he's not completely sure what, if anything, he wants to buy. "I have plenty of time to look at the flyer," he says.

For him, it's more of a social event than a shopping event. Last year, he left right before the store opened and shopped online.

As for Thanksgiving dinner, his mom isn't so sure she'll spend Thanksgiving with her sons if they spend it in the tent.

"It's awful cold in that tent, even with the heater," Sebring says. Allooh says he hopes friends will relieve them so ! they can have Thanksgiving dinner at home.

Tony Avitar, who was first in line last year, set up the second tent.

Avitar "came earlier than he had planned to because he saw the other tent was here," his parents, Ed and Janet Regec of Akron, told the Akron-Beacon Journal.

Top Safest Companies To Watch In Right Now

The Cuyahoga Falls Best Buy is offering deals on 60-inch flat-screen TVs for $998, iPads for $300 and digital cameras half off at $800. The chain retailer will open at 6 p.m. nationwide on Thanksgiving Day.

In Jacksonville, N.C., Robert Prine told WITN that he set up his tent Wednesday afternoon. He's in line for a coveted Xbox One gaming system, which goes on sale early Friday at midnight. He also wants to snag a Black Friday deal on a 65-inch Samsung TV that he says will save him $1,000.

He told the station that he has camped out before for Black Friday, but never longer than 48 hours.

In Beaumont, Calif., Victoria Torres is the veteran Black Friday shopper/camper of a small troop of about 10 people. She's been camping outside the Best Buy for Black Friday sales for five years.

"When we need something and we can't afford it, we come out here on Black Friday, because they've got the good deals," she told the station.

She was in line Monday. She said she looks forward to it every year.

"It gets a little cold," Torres said, "but it's worth it."

Follow @marisol_bello on Twitter.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Chart of the Day: Rising Tide Fuels Rally

Individual stocks are getting swept up in this year’s rally.

Some 451 stocks within the S&P 500 are up for the year, tracking the second-highest total since 1980, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. In 2003, there were 458 stocks in the S&P 500 that finished the year in positive territory.

“The number is significant since it shows the depth of the recovery,” Mr. Silverblatt says.

The S&P 500 has rallied 23% in 2013 and finished Friday at a record high. The so-called momentum stocks, such as Netflix Inc.(NFLX) and Best Buy Inc.(BBY), have led the way. But a look at the rest of the market shows most stocks have also been coming along for the ride.

The pattern taking place today doesn’t always unfold during big rallies. The rally during the late 1990s proves this point. Back then, the tech bubble was forming and stocks were valued on “faith and hits as compared to sales and cash-flow,” Mr. Silverblatt says.

In 1998, the S&P 500 jumped 27%. And yet just 58% of stocks in the index rose that year. A similar pattern took place in 1999, when the S&P 500 jumped 20%, but only 48% of stocks finished the year higher.

This year has been quite a different story. About 90% of S&P 500 stocks are trading higher, with the average stock price up about 23% for the year.

Netflix and Best Buy have been the S&P 500′s biggest-gaining stocks this year, up by more than 200% apiece. There are seven stocks in the index that have more than doubled this year.

Conversely, there are only 18 stocks in the S&P 500 that are down by at least 10% this year. J.C. Penney(JCP) has been the biggest loser; the stock’s 65% drop has pushed the company’s market capitalization down $2.1 billion, the lowest in the index.

Newmont Mining Corp.(NEM) and Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.(CLF) are respectively down by more than 30% in 2013.

A combination of slowly growing earnings, a gradually improving economy and a highly accommodative Federal Reserve has driven the stock market to unchartered territory.

Mr. Silverblatt also suggests performance-chasing has played a role in the big rally and could continue through year-end.

“Chasing returns is not a good reason to invest, but when enough do it, the short-term impact is more buying and higher prices, which we may be getting close to if the market stays anywhere near its current level,” Mr. Silverblatt says.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Why This Beauty Giantâ€™s Business Strategy Will Pay Off

Top Cheap Companies For 2015

The personal care industry is typically characterized by fast-changing consumer preferences and strong market competition. However, Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) has done an outstanding job at maintaining its position as one of the global industry leaders. With a combination of product innovation, aggressive marketing strategies and international presence, the cosmetics company is a keeper for long-term investors like Mario Gabelli (Trades, Portfolio), who recently doubled his shares in the beauty giant.

An Extensive Portfolio, All Over the Globe

Treading the personal care market successfully is no easy task, but this major cosmetics firm has learned, through 60 years of experience, how to please its customers. By manufacturing and marketing a wide range of products in the skin care (44% of sales), makeup (38%), fragrance (13%) and hair-care (5%) department, this company has managed to set itself apart from competitors L'Oreal and The Procter & Gamble Company (PG). Its extensive brand portfolio, comprised of names like Clinique, Origins, M-A-C, Tommy Hilfiger, Aveda and Donna Karan, have contributed to the current 25% share of the global prestige makeup industry. This is also reflected in the No. 1, or 2, market position that the company holds in 18 countries worldwide, and the $10 billion in sales generated in fourth quarter of fiscal 2013.

However, what differentiates Estee Lauder the most from its competitors is the firm's international presence. With 60% of its sales acquired through department stores, specialty retailers and salons in over 150 countries, this firm has a solid cash flow that should be able to easily maneuver any headwinds in the domestic market. Furthermore, its focus on emerging markets, which reel in one-third of its revenues, is highly beneficial, given the growing middle class and vast young population in these nations. Brazil, for example, is Estee Lauder's fastest growing market, due to M-A-C, Tommy Hilfiger, and DKNY's popularity.

The product lines tailored to local needs and diverse ethnicities, such as Clinique's Shades of Africa, earn this company extra points in the brand popularity contest. And despite added costs, due to 2013's new freestanding store openings (690 single-brand stores and 130 multi-brand outlets worldwide, particularly in emerging regions), the beauty-care firm shows no sign of major debts. In fact, operating margins have experienced a 15% bump, and EBITDA levels have tripled since 2010, closing at $1.9 billion for fiscal 2013.

Marketing vs. Cost Reduction Strategies

In an attempt to trim costs and increase its operational efficiencies, Estee Lauder's business strategy last year focused on centralizing its core operating functions, as well as reducing non-profitable stock keeping units. The cost reduction program, Strategic Modernization Initiative (SMI), proved highly efficient, saving the company $781 million in 2013. Furthermore, while the program will continue throughout 2014, management announced that it would be reinvesting a large amount of the cost savings in marketing for its core brands, along with product innovation. In this regard, decentralizing innovation to better adjust to its global customer preferences, is and will continue to be a key strategy in further propelling the beauty giant's growth.

Nevertheless, some risks remain present in Estee Lauder's panorama. When it comes to retailers, consumers' trend of venturing towards alternative outlets could damage the company's revenue, which relies on traditional North American department stores for one-third of its revenue. Also, while the firm's strong international presence draws in 60% of sales, volatile changes in foreign currency rates could dampen profitability. However, the 50% raise in advertising in TV and digital media these past three years, along with the High Touch service (very personal service) for customers and gift with purchase initiative, should be able to retain consumer loyalty and overcome possible headwinds.

Lastly, Estee Lauder's celebrity power, achieved via collaborations with popular artists like Rihanna (M-A-C collection December 2013), will increase demand among teenagers and further drive revenues in 2014. This aggressive marketing strategy, the firm's diverse and popular brand portfolio, and the 68.20% of ROC leave me feeling very bullish about this beauty expert's future.

Disclosure: Patricio Kehoe holds no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now

The worst fears of the retail industry were realized as holiday retail sales fell below expectations. Research firm ShopperTrak reported that Thanksgiving and Black Friday only produced $12.3 billion dollars for the industry. That number was higher by only a tiny amount compared to 2012.

ShopperTrak reported:

With the allure of deep discounts, ��oor-buster��promotions and extended store hours, shoppers visited more stores and spent more money across the days of Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday (Nov. 28 and 29) than they did last year.

ShopperTrak, the leading provider of shopper analytics, estimates that, when compared to Thanksgiving and Black Friday last year, brick-and-mortar shopper traffic increased 2.8 percent, to more than 1.07 billion store visits. Retail sales also increased by 2.3 percent, as shoppers spent an estimated total of $12.3 billion across the two days.

To make matters worse, those deep discounts may have been so deep that margins were squeezed enough at some retailers so that a portion of the industry had no profits at all over the two days.

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI)

IAC/InterActiveCorp engages in the Internet business in the United States and internationally. The company�s Search segment develops, markets, and distributes various downloadable toolbars; provides search, reference, and content services through its destination search and other Websites, including Ask.com and Dictionary.com; and aggregates and integrates local advertising and content for distribution to publishers on Web and mobile platforms, as well as markets and distributes mobile applications through which it provides search and additional services. Its Match segment offers subscription-based and advertiser-supported online personals services through its Websites comprising Match.com, Chemistry.com, OurTime.com, BlackPeopleMeet.com, and OkCupid.com, as well as through mobile applications and Meetic-branded Websites. The company�s ServiceMagic segment offers Market Match service that matches consumers with service professionals; Exact Match service, which enables con sumers to review service professional profiles and select the service professional that meets their specific needs; and 1800Contractor.com, an online directory of service professionals. This segment also offers Website design and hosting services. Its Media and Other segment operates CollegeHumor.com, an online entertainment Website that targets young males; Vimeo, a Website on which users can upload, share, and view video; and Pronto.com, a comparison search engine. This segment also engages in the creation of video content for various distribution platforms; and operates as an Internet retailer of footwear and related apparel and accessories, as well as focuses on multimedia business. The company was formerly known as InterActiveCorp and changed its name to IAC/InterActiveCorp in July 2004. IAC/InterActiveCorp was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By WALLSTCHEATSHEET.COM]
IAC isn�� the most loved company on the street, which is evidenced by that 8.80 percent short position. However, IAC continues to deliver on the top and bottom lines. As long as that remains to be the case, IAC is an OUTPERFORM.
[By Jake L'Ecuyer]
Equities Trading UP
IAC/InterActiveCorp (NASDAQ: IACI) shot up 15.54 percent to $69.43 after the company reported that that it is reorganizing and that Greg Blatt, its CEO, will become the Chairman of the newly created Match Group.

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: Central Goldtrust (GTU)

Central GoldTrust (GoldTrust) is a passive, self-governing, single purpose, closed-end trust. GoldTrust is a gold holding trust created to buy and hold substantially all of its assets in long-term holdings of gold bullion. The primary objective of GoldTrust is to provide a exchange-tradeable alternative for investors interested in holding an investment in gold bullion. All gold bullion owned by GoldTrust must be stored in Canada in the treasury vault facilities of a tier 1 Canadian chartered bank on an allocated and segregated basis.

GoldTrust holds long-term holdings of pure, unencumbered gold bullion, in 400 troy ounce international bar sizes, and does not speculate with regard to short-term changes in gold prices. At least 95% of the total net assets of GoldTrust should be held in gold with at least 90% in physical bullion and up to 5% in gold certificate form. The property of GoldTrust, as at December 31, 2011, was consisted of 698,496 fine ounces of gold bullion and 6,156 fine ounces of gold in certificate form for a total of 704,652 fine ounces. GoldTrust is almost entirely invested in pure refined gold bullion in international bar form. As at December 31, 2011, GoldTrust�� assets were made up of 98.1% gold.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Eric Parnell]
It also remains worthwhile to hedge stock allocations to protect against any major downside event along the way. This includes positions with low correlations such as the PIMCO Total Return ETF (BOND) or the PIMCO Global Advantage Inflation Linked Bond ETF (ILB). This also includes allocations that are likely to rally sharply in the event of a stock pullback but can also continue to rise along with the market such as long-term Treasuries (TLT) or Build America Bonds (BAB). And despite the recent thrashing they have endured, the precious metals complex including gold (GLD), silver (SLV), platinum (PPLT) and palladium (PALL) continue to provide attractive long-term portfolio diversification benefits. I remain long all of these metals via the Central GoldTrust (GTU), the Central Fund of America (CEF), the Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) and the Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust (SPPP).

Top 5 Low Price Companies To Watch In Right Now: PetSmart Inc(PETM)

PetSmart, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of products, services, and solutions for pets in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Canada. The company offers consumables, such as pet food, treats, and litter; and hardgoods, which include pet supplies and other goods comprising collars, leashes, health care supplies, grooming and beauty aids, toys, apparel, and pet beds and carriers, as well as aquariums and habitats, accessories, d�or, and filters for fish, birds, reptiles, and small pets. It also provides fresh-water fish, small birds, reptiles, and small pets; and pet services, such as grooming, including precision cuts, baths, nail trimming and grinding, and teeth brushing, as well as training, boarding, and day camp services. In addition, the company operates PetsHotels that offer boarding for dogs and cats; provides personalized pet care, an on-call veterinarian, temperature controlled rooms and suites, daily specialty treats and p lay time, and day camp services for dogs; and operates veterinary hospitals, which offer services comprising routine examinations and vaccinations, dental care, a pharmacy, and surgical procedures. As of January 29, 2012, it operated 1,232 retail stores; 192 PetsHotels; 791 veterinary hospitals under the trade name of Banfield, The Pet Hospital; and 8 hospitals operated through other third parties in Canada. The company also offers its products through an e-commerce and community site, PetSmart.com. PetSmart, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Rich Duprey]
There are a lot of moving parts for PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM ) going into its annual shareholder meeting on Friday.

The pet food and supplies leader announced yesterday it has named a new non-executive chairman of the board,�Gregory P. Josefowicz, who will assume the role following the meeting. Exiting Chairman and CEO Bob Moran will not stand for reelection as a director, and company President and COO�David Lenhardt will fill the role of CEO.�Executive Vice President Joseph O'Leary will become president and COO. In May, the company named Carrie Teffner as its new chief financial officer.
[By Ben Eisen]
Given that outlook, he sees ten stocks in the consumer discretionary sector that qualify as bargains at the moment, including some of the very stocks that are expecting downbeat holiday results. They include: Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) , AutoNation, Inc. (AN) , Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) , Carmax, Inc. (KMX) �, Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) �, PetsMart, Inc. (PETM) �, Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) , Staples, Inc. (SPLS) �, Target Corp. (TGT) �, and Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) .
[By Mike Deane]
On Thursday, PetSmart (PETM) announced that it will be raising its dividend 18.2% and that it has authorized a $535 million stock repurchase plan.

The Phoenix, AZ-based company raised its quarterly dividend from 16.5 cents to 19.5 cents, which is an annualized payout of 78 cents. The dividend is payable on November 15 to all shareholders on record as of November 1. The ex-dividend date is October 30.

In addition to its dividend boost, PetSmart also announced a $535 million share buyback plan that will start on October 1, 2013 and expire on January 31, 2015.

PETM shares were up 56 cents, or .76%, at market close on Thursday. The company’s stock is up nearly 7% YTD.
[By Rich Smith]
PetSmart (NASDAQ: PETM ) will soon have a new CFO to go with its new CEO and COO.

In January, the pet supplies superstore confirmed that David K. Lenhardt would become its new chief executive officer, and Joseph O'Leary would assume the chief operating officer's post. That was two down, one to go, and the company named the third member of its C-level triumvirate Monday: Carrie Teffner, who will become chief financial officer effective June 3.

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: Nucor Corporation(NUE)

Nucor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products in North America and internationally. It operates through three segments: Steel Mills, Steel Products, and Raw Materials. The Steel Mills segment produces hot and cold-rolled sheet steel; plate steel; structural steel comprising wide-flange beams, beam blanks, and sheet piling; and bar steel, such as blooms, billets, concrete reinforcing bar, merchant bar, and special bar quality products. The Steel Products segment offers steel joists and joist girders, steel deck, fabricated concrete reinforcing steel, cold finished steel, steel fasteners, metal building systems, light gauge steel framing, steel grating and expanded metal, and wire and wire mesh products. The Raw Materials segment produces direct reduced iron (DRI); brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, hot briquetted iron, and DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal products. The company?s operations also include various international trading companies that buy and sell steel and steel products. It sells its hot-rolled steel and cold-rolled steel to steel service centers, fabricators, and manufacturers; steel joists and joist girders, and steel deck to general contractors and fabricators; and cold finished steel and steel fasteners to distributors and manufacturers. The company?s products are used by contractors in constructing highways, bridges, reservoirs, utilities, hospitals, schools, airports, stadiums, and high-rise buildings. Nucor Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Jayson Derrick]
Wells Fargo downgraded two steel stocks this morning due to increasing amounts of cheaper imports that have been flooding the market. U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) were downgraded to a $17 to $21 range and a $50 to $55 range respectively. U.S. Steel lost 2.98 percent for the day closing at $26.34 while Nucor lost 2.05 percent, closing at $51.96.
[By Rich Smith]
Nucor (NYSE: NUE ) earnings came out this morning, and the news was not good.

Sales for the fiscal second quarter dropped nearly 9%, to $4.7 billion. Earnings, at $0.27 per diluted share, were down 23%, due primarily to the reduction in revenues, and exacerbated by an increase in monies spent on marketing, administrative, and other expenses.
[By Arjun Sreekumar]
Similarly, Nucor (NYSE: NUE ) , one of the largest U.S. steelmakers, is close to finishing up a new DRI plant in Louisiana that will be able to process roughly 2.5 million tons of DRI pellets a year. Given that Nucor has a production capacity of approximately 27 million tons, that 2.5 million ton increase would represent a 9% increase to the company's total capacity.

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: Ultra Electronic Hdgs(ULE.L)

Ultra Electronics Holdings plc designs, develops, and manufactures electronic systems for the defense, security, transport, and energy markets worldwide. Its Aircraft and Vehicle Systems division offers airframe ice protection systems, active noise and vibration control, aircraft system electronics and test equipment, consultancy and training solutions, data bus network nodes, armored vehicle electronic systems, and software and systems. This division also provides airborne compressors, human/machine interface and vehicle control equipment, ID card printers, pneumatic sub-systems, remote weapon station control and portable oxygen generating equipment, rugged aircraft harness systems, sensors, and structural health monitoring systems. The company?s Information and Power Systems division offers airport information management systems, airport-wide systems integration, combat systems, command information management systems, enterprise IT solutions, IT consultancy, nuclear rea ctor control and instrumentation, data fusion and situational awareness systems, radar and electro-optic systems, surveillance and tracking systems, naval power conversion, gas turbine electric start and regeneration systems, signature measurement and control systems for naval vessels, and transit system power conversion and controls; and command, control, and information systems. Its Tactical and Sonar Systems division provides acoustic countermeasure systems, airborne anti-submarine warfare systems, underwater surveillance systems and acoustic countermeasures, airborne targeting pods, communications network interfacing equipment, data recording and analysis, cryptographic equipment, gunfire location systems, loitering munition systems, radio communication systems, sea mine disposal systems, sonar transducers and systems, submarine tactical communication systems, and torpedo defense systems; and video, voice, and data communication systems. The company is based in Greenford , the United Kingdom.

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: Arotech Corporation(ARTX)

Arotech Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides defense and security products. It operates in three divisions: Training and Simulation, Battery and Power Systems, and Armor. The Training and Simulation division develops, manufactures, and markets multimedia and interactive digital solutions for use-of-force training and driving training of military, law enforcement, security, and other personnel; provides simulators, systems engineering, and software products to the United States military, government, and private industry; and offers specialized use of force training for police, security personnel, and the military. The Battery and Power Systems division manufactures and sells lithium and zinc-air batteries for defense and security products and other military applications; and develops and sells rechargeable and primary lithium batteries and smart chargers to the military and to private defense industry. This division also develops, manufactures, and markets primary zinc-air batteries, rechargeable batteries, and battery chargers for the military; and produces water-activated lifejacket lights for commercial aviation and marine applications. The Armor Division manufactures military and paramilitary armored vehicles, and employs sophisticated lightweight materials to produce aviation armor; and uses engineering concepts to produce combat armored military vehicles and up-armor civilian commercial vehicles. This division also uses lightweight armoring materials and advanced engineering processes to provide ballistic armor kits for rotary and fixed wing aircraft. Arotech sells its products primarily in the United States, Israel, Taiwan, Canada, England, Germany, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Mexico, India, Spain, Singapore, and Japan. The company was formerly known as Electric Fuel Corporation and changed its name to Arotech Corporation in September 2003. Arotech Corporation was founded in 1990 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Roberto Pedone]
One under-$10 stock that's quickly moving within range of triggering a major breakout trade is Arotech (ARTX), which is a defense and security products and services company, engaged in two business areas: interactive simulation for military, law enforcement and commercial markets; and batteries and charging systems for the military. This stock has been on fire so far in 2013, with shares up big by 98%.

If you take a look at the chart for Arotech, you'll notice that this stock is spiking sharply higher today right above its 50-day moving average of $1.84 a share with above-average volume. Volume so far in Thursday has registered over 430,000 shares, which is well above its three-month average action of 302,874 shares. This spike is quickly pushing shares of ARTX within range of triggering a major breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ARTX if it manages to break out above some key overhead resistance levels at $2.35 to its 52-week high at $2.71 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 302,874 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ARTX will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $4 to $5 a share.

Traders can look to buy ARTX off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below its 50-day moving average at $1.84 a share, or below more support at $1.63 a share. One can also buy ARTX off strength once it clears those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.
[By Bryan Murphy]
The great part about trading is the same thing that can make it a miserable game to play... nothing lasts forever. If you can spot the points in time when the winds blowing a stock are about to change, you can make or save a fortune. If you miss those subtle clues, however, you can lose... big-time. Enter Arotech Corporation (NASDAQ:ARTX) and Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARIA). Both have been well-watched stocks of late, and for food reason - both are big movers, in one direction or the other. Now, however, both ARIA and ARTX� are poised to move in a new direction - opposite directions - and traders looking for a good opportunity may want to take a closer look at both [which is what you're about to do].
[By Roberto Pedone]
One stock that's quickly moving within range of triggering a big breakout trade is Arotech (ARTX), which is a defense and security products and services company. This stock is off to a booming start in 2013, with shares up big by 82%.

If you take a look at the chart for Arotech, you'll notice that this stock has just started to trend back above its 50-day moving average of $1.86 a share with strong upside volume. Volume so far today has already registered over 600,000 shares, which is well above its three-month average action of 226,678 shares. This spike back above the 50-day is starting to push shares of ARTX within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in ARTX if it manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $1.97 to $2.24 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 226,678 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then ARTX will set up to re-test or possibly take out its 52-week high at $2.71 a share. Any high-volume move above $2.71 will then give ARTX a chance to trend north of $3 a share.

Traders can look to buy ARTX off any weakness to anticipate that breakout and simply use a stop that sits right below some key near-term support at $1.74 a share. One can also buy ARTX off strength once it takes out those breakout levels with volume and then simply use a stop that sits a comfortable percentage from your entry point.

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: NYSE Euronext Inc.(NYX)

NYSE Euronext, through its subsidiaries, operates securities exchanges. It operates various stock exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NYSE Arca, Inc., and NYSE Amex LLC in the United States; and five European-based exchanges that comprise Euronext N.V. ? the Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, and Lisbon stock exchanges, as well as the NYSE Liffe derivatives markets in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, and Lisbon. The company?s Derivatives segment provides access to trade execution in derivatives products, options, and futures; offers clearing services for derivative products; and sells and distributes market data and related information. NYSE Euronext?s Cash Trading and Listings segment engages in offering access to trade execution in cash trading and settlement of transactions in European markets; obtaining new listings and servicing existing listings; selling and distributing market data and related information; and providing regulatory services. Its Info rmation Services and Technology Solutions segment operates sell side and buy side connectivity networks for its markets and for other market centers, and market participants in the United States, Europe, and Asia; provides trading and information technology software and solutions; sells and distributes market data and related information to data subscribers for proprietary data products; and offers asset management services, and consultancy services to exchanges and liquidity centers. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Sam Mamudi]
As U.S. exchanges lose business to private venues, owners of public markets have sought help reversing the shift. NYSE Euronext (NYX) and Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ) have asked the SEC to consider rules keeping orders off dark pools unless those venues offer a better price than exchanges at a given moment.
[By Alex Planes]
Merrill had been founded in 1914, so why did it wait decades to go public? The answer involves the New York Stock Exchange -- now part of NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX ) -- which underwent many rule changes during the '60s and '70s. A long-standing rule prohibiting NYSE member firms (typically broker-dealers) from operating as joint-stock corporations was loosened in 1970. Following this change, a number of member firms -- but not the majority -- wound up going public to take advantage of fresh capital.
[By Sam Mamudi]
NYSE Euronext (NYX), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, bought a minority stake in ACE Group Inc., which operates a platform for companies to sell stocks, bonds and other securities privately.

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: Intel Corporation(INTC)

Intel Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of integrated circuits for computing and communications industries worldwide. It offers microprocessor products used in notebooks, netbooks, desktops, servers, workstations, storage products, embedded applications, communications products, consumer electronics devices, and handhelds. The company also provides system on chip products that integrate its core processing functionalities with other system components, such as graphics, audio, and video, onto a single chip. In addition, it offers chipset products that send data between the microprocessor and input, display, and storage devices, including keyboard, mouse, monitor, hard drive, and CD, DVD, or Blu-ray drives; motherboards designed for desktop, server, and workstation platforms, and that has connectors for attaching devices to the bus; and wired and wireless connectivity products consisting of network adapters and embedded wireless cards used to translate and transmit data across networks. Further, the company provides NAND flash memory products primarily used in portable memory storage devices, digital camera memory cards, and solid-state drives; software products comprising operating systems, middleware, and tools used to develop, run, and manage various enterprise, consumer, embedded, and handheld devices; and software development tools that enable the creation of applications. Additionally, it develops computing platforms, which are integrated hardware and software computing technologies designed to offer an optimized solution. The company sells its products principally to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, PC components and other products users, and other manufacturers of industrial and communications equipment. It has a strategic alliance with Scientific Conservation Inc. Intel Corporation was founded in 1968 and is based in Santa Clara, California.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Caroline Bennett]
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) has plans to collaborate with SoftKinetic, a software company that focuses on 3-D gesture recognition.

Through the terms of the agreement that SoftKinetic announced today, Intel will license SoftKinetic's iisu, a close-range gesture-tracking program, for inclusion within Intel's Perceptual Computing software development kit.
[By Steve Heller]
In other to accomplish this feat, Facebook enlisted the help of Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) for its silicon photonic technology, enabling transfer speeds of 100 gigabits per second, as well as a low enough latency for components to be spread out within the server rack. As a result, Facebook has been able to develop server designs that are 38% more efficient and 24% less expensive to build and operate than today's state-of-the-art servers. This approach not only allows for data center engineers to create custom modular server designs to exact specifications, but also maximizes the life cycle of components.
[By Steve Heller]
Kill Windows RT
Windows RT has been a nightmare since the beginning. It has utterly confused consumers since there are inherent differences between the full version of Windows 8 and Windows RT. For one, Windows RT devices are powered by ARM Holdings (NASDAQ: ARMH ) designs, which to the consumer means that legacy Windows applications are not compatible. However, devices powered by ARM offer the promise of smaller form factors and improved battery life over Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) -powered designs.
[By Travis Hoium]
Intel's (NASDAQ: INTC ) �stock has been all over the map in the past week, jumping when management introduced its new strategy and dropping when they released 2014 guidance. But did the stock really deserve the pummeling considering Intel's late charge into mobile?�

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: Hokutou Holdings International Inc (HKTU)

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: Ashland Inc. (ASH)

Ashland Inc. operates as a specialty chemicals company in the United States and internationally. Its Ashland Aqualon Functional Ingredients segment produces cellulose ethers; and specialty additives and functional ingredients. Its products offer functionality, such as thickening and rheology control; water retention; adhesive strength; binding power; film formation; protective colloid, suspending, and emulsifying action; foam control; and pH stability. The company?s Ashland Hercules Water Technologies segment manufactures papermaking chemicals and supplies specialty chemicals. It offers sizing agents, wet/dry strength additives, and crepe and release additives for tissue manufacturing; and deposit control agents, defoamers, biocides, and other process additives. This segment also provides specialized chemicals and consulting services for the utility water treatment; and performance-based feed and control systems; and monitoring devices and remote system surveillance. Its A shland Performance Materials segment manufactures and supplies specialty chemicals and customized services to the building and construction, transportation, metal casting, packaging and converting, and marine markets. It also offers unsaturated polyester and vinyl ester resins, and gelcoats; adhesives and specialty resins; and metal casting consumables and design services. The company?s Ashland Consumer Markets segment produces and markets packaged automotive lubricants, chemicals, appearance products, antifreeze, and filters to the private passenger car, light truck, and heavy duty markets. It also operates a quick-lube franchise under the name of Valvoline Instant Oil Change. The company was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Covington, Kentucky.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Seth Jayson]
Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Ashland (NYSE: ASH ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.
[By Seth Jayson]
Margins matter. The more Ashland (NYSE: ASH ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong Ashland's competitive position could be.
[By Victor Selva] ow such a promising comeback, and the drop in revenue during 2012 was anticipated by investor Jean-Marie Eveillard (Trades, Portfolio), who sold out his 3.9 million share position by the third quarter of that year.

Another industry giant, Huntsman Corporation (HUN) did show more promising results, and less volatile revenues during these last years. This, of course, has led to a high price to earnings ratio discouraging investors as we see later.

Geographically Diversified

On 2012, almost 50% of Eastman sales were generated in North America, while more than 25% were in Asia and 20% in Europe, Middle East and Africa. This diversification is to be taken into account since it guarantees long-term revenue, even if cigarette consumption decreases in some specific region (for instance, American sales declined �in recent years), which would stabilize acetate tow demands worldwide.

Industrial Background and Gurus��Preference

Eastman�� earnings per share growth was significantly higher than industry median (46.9% vs. 5.2%) but so was Huntsman��, at 46.5%. The critical difference between these two industry giants stands out by looking at their price to earnings: Eastman�� is below median (16.4 vs. 19.1) while Huntsman rose up to 130.1, thus entailing a significant price premium relative to industry peers��average.

Although Ashland does have an inferior price to earnings ratio than Eastman�� (11.5), there�� a significant difference in their earnings per share growth: 27%, probably caused by a decline in revenue.

This might have been one of the reasons that motivated investors David Dreman (Trades, Portfolio) and Joel Greenblatt (Trades, Portfolio) to significantly reduce their stake in Huntsman (both of them by more than 80% margin). In contrast, Leon Cooperman (Trades, Portfolio) and Scott Black (Trades, Portfolio), reinforced their positions in Eastman. Most notably, Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio)
[By Shauna O'Brien]
Jefferies reported on Thursday that it has cut its rating on chemical company Ashland Inc. (ASH).

The firm has downgraded ASH from “Buy” to “Hold,” and has lowered the company’s price target from $104 to $97. This price target suggests a 9% upside from the stock’s current price of $88.47.

Analyst Laurence Alexander commented: “Investor confidence in the asset shuffling thesis may not withstand 2-3 more rounds of downward revisions to EPS and FCF forecasts for 2014E-2016E.”

“Pension headwinds, incentive comp, Valvoline marketing expenses, sluggish end markets: in our view, it all adds up, and makes further multiple expansion more difficult.”

Looking ahead, the firm has reduced estimates for the fourth quarter from $1.70 to $1.59 per share. For FY2013, earnings estimates have been lowered from $6.25 to $6.15 per share. FY2014 estimates have been cut from $7.45 to $6.75 per share.

Ashland shares were mostly flat during pre-market trading Thursday. The stock is up 10% YTD

Top 10 US Stocks To Watch Right Now: DTE Energy Company(DTE)

DTE Energy Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an electric and natural gas utility company in Michigan. It also involves in non-utility operations. The company?s Energy Utility segment engages in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity in southeastern Michigan. It generates electricity from various fuels, including coal, as well as from nuclear and hydro facilitates. As of December 31, 2010, this segment owned and operated approximately 674 distribution substations and approximately 412,100 line transformers; and supplied electricity to 2.1 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in southeastern Michigan. The company?s Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, storage, transmission, distribution, and sale of natural gas in Michigan. As of December 31, 2010, this segment?s distribution system included approximately 19,000 miles of distribution mains, 1,036,000 service lines, and 1,319,000 active meters. It also o wned approximately 2,000 miles of transmission lines that deliver natural gas; and supplied natural gas to approximately 1.2 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers throughout Michigan, as well as to approximately 17,000 customers in Adrian, Michigan. The company?s non-utility operations include natural gas pipelines and storage; unconventional gas exploration, development, and production; power and industrial projects, and coal transportation and marketing; and energy marketing and trading operations. Its customers include electric utilities, merchant power producers, integrated steel mills, and industrial companies. DTE Energy Company was founded in 1995 and is based in Detroit, Michigan.

Advisors' Opinion:

[By Seth Jayson]
Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on DTE Energy (NYSE: DTE ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.
[By John Udovich]
Small cap Plug Power Inc was formed in 1997 as a joint venture between Michigan utility owner DTE Energy Co (NYSE: DTE) and Mechanical Technology Inc (OTCMKTS: MKTY) to develop fuel-cell systems to power homes and small businesses. Plug Power Inc says it has�revolutionized the material handling industry with cost-effective power solutions that increase productivity, lower operating costs and reduce carbon footprints as�it manufactures a full suite of products designed to fit seamlessly into the existing battery compartment of all major OEM material handling equipment. In addition, the company says its GenDrive fuel cell is a superior alternative to lead-acid batteries for electric lift trucks in the $20 billion�global material handling market.

Monday, January 27, 2014

5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Corporate insiders sell their own companies' stock for a number of reasons.

>>5 Short-Squeeze Stocks Ready to Pop

They might need the cash for a big personal purchase such as a new house or yacht, or they might need the cash to fund a charity. Sometimes they sell as part of a planned selling program that they have put in place for diversification purposes, which allows them to sell stock in stages instead of selling all at one price.

Other times they sell because they think their stock is overvalued and the risk/reward is no longer attractive. Some even dump their own stock because they have inside knowledge that a competitor is eating their lunch and stealing market share.

But insiders usually buy their own shares for one reason: They think the stock is a bargain and has tremendous upside.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

The key word in that last statement is "think." Just because a corporate insider thinks his or her stock is going to trade higher, that doesn't mean it will play out that way. Insiders can have all the conviction in the world that their stock is a buy, but if the market doesn't agree with them, the stock could end up going nowhere. Also, I say "usually" because sometimes insiders are loaned money by the company to buy their own stock. Those loans are often sweetheart deals and shouldn't be viewed as organic insider buying.

At the end of the day, its large institutional money managers running big mutual funds and hedge funds that drive stock prices, not insiders. That said, many of these savvy stock operators will follow insider buying activity when they agree with the insider that the stock is undervalued and has upside potential. This is why it's so important to always be monitoring insider activity, but it's twice as important to make sure the trend of the stock coincides with the insider buying.

>>5 Dividend Stocks That Want to Pay You More

Recently, a number of companies' corporate insiders have bought large amounts of stock. These insiders are finding some value in the market, which warrants a closer look at these stocks. Here's a look at five stocks whose insiders have been doing some big buying per SEC filings.

Copart

One stock that insiders are snapping up a huge amount of is Copart (CPRT), a provider of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. Insiders are buying this stock into modest strength, since shares are up 10.9% so far in 2013.

Copart market cap of 4.12 billion. This stock trades at a fair valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 23.11 and a forward price-to-earnings of 17.65. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 15.1%, and for next year it's pegged at 15.6%.

>>5 Rocket Stocks Worth Buying This Week

The chairman of the board just bought 227,900 shares, or about $7.05 million worth of stock, at $30.73 to $31.08 a share.

From a technical perspective, CPRT is currently trending above its 50-day moving average and just below its 200-day moving average, which is neutral trendwise. This stock recently gapped down sharply from $34.71 to around $30.50 a share with heavy downside volume. Following that gap down, shares of CPRT have started to rebound sharply and trend back into that gap area.

If you're bullish on CPRT, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support at $32 or at $31.50, and then once breaks out above its 200-day moving average of $33.23 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 714,997 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then CPRT will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $35 to $37 a share.

Weatherford International

Another stock that insiders are in love with here is Weatherford International (WFT), a global provider of products and services that span the drilling, evaluation, completion, production and intervention cycles of oil and natural gas wells. Insiders are buying this stock into big time strength, since shares are up 41% so far in 2013.

Weatherford International has a market cap of $12.15 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings of 12.35. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 43.1%, and for next year it's pegged at 55.4%.

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

A director just bought 78,000 shares, or about $1.18 million worth of stock, at $15.36 per share.

From a technical perspective, WFT is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last six months, with shares soaring higher from its low of $11.66 to its recent high of $16 a share. During that uptrend, shares of WFT have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of WFT within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're in the bull camp on WFT, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above is 50-day at $14.89, and then once it breaks out above its 52-week high at $16 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 6.65 million shares. If we get that move soon, then WFT will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $18 to $22 a share.

Synageva BioPharma

One biopharmaceutical player that insiders are loading up on here is Synageva BioPharma (GEVA), which is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutic products for patients with life-threatening rare diseases and unmet medical need. Insiders are buying this stock into solid strength, since shares are up 43% so far in 2013.

Synageva BioPharma has a market cap of $1.97 billion. Its estimated growth rate for this year is -73.2%, and for next year it's pegged at -22.8%.

>>4 Biotech Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves

A director just bought 1.05 million shares, or about $59.46 million worth of stock, at $56.63 per share.

From a technical perspective, GEVA is currently trending well above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last month and change, with shares soaring higher from its low of $44.52 to its intraday high of $68.25 a share. During that uptrend, shares of GEVA have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That said, shares of GEVA have now entered extremely overbought territory, since its current relative strength index reading is 89.

If you're bullish on GEVA, then look for long-biased trades after this stock has cooled off and worked off some of its overbought conditions. I would look for a pullback back toward $62.50 or $60 a share to potentially get long shares of GEVA. Keep in mind that as long as GEVA is trending above its key breakout level of $55, then it remains in a very bullish uptrend.

NuStar GP

An energy player that insiders are jumping into here is NuStar GP (NSH), which is a refiner, marketer, and operator of petroleum product terminals and petroleum liquids pipelines. Insiders are buying this stock into notable weakness, since shares are off by 18.9% so far in 2013.

NuStar GP has a market cap of $954 million. This stock trades at a cheap valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 20.12 and a forward price-to-earnings of 15.27. Its estimated growth rate for the next quarter is 183.3%, and for next year it's pegged at 21.1%.

>>5 Stocks Rising on Big Volume

A director just bought 50,000 shares, or about $1.02 million worth of stock, at $20.45 to $20.77 per share.

From a technical perspective, NSH is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock had been downtrending badly for the last six months, with shares falling sharply lower from its high of $31.09 to its recent low of $19.34 a share. During that downtrend, shares of NSH have been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action. That said, shares of NSH have now started to rebound off that $19.34 low and it has entered a new uptrend. That move is pushing shares of NSH within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade.

If you're bullish on NSH, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some key near-term support at $21.80 or at $21 and then once it breaks out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $22.70 to its 50-day at $23.22 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average volume of 205,620 shares. If that breakout hits, then NSH will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $26 to its 200-day at $27.20 a share.

Chef's Warehouse

One final name with some decent insider buying is Chef's Warehouse (CHEF), which supplies products such as specialty cheeses, truffles, seafood, cooking oils and flour to restaurants, country clubs, hotels, caterers, culinary schools and specialty food stores. Insiders are buying this stock into bullish strength, since shares are up 44% so far in 2013.

Chef's Warehouse has a market cap of $486.80 million. This stock trades at a fair valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 31.78 and a forward price-to-earnings of 22.46. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 15%, and for next year it's pegged at 12%.

>>5 Hated Earnings Stocks You Should Love

A director just bought 30,000 shares, or $630,000 worth of stock, at $21 per share.

From a technical perspective, CHEF is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last three months, with shares moving higher from its low of $16.29 to its recent high of $24.10 a share. During that uptrend, shares of CHEF have been mostly making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of CHEF within range of triggering a big breakout trade.

If you're bullish on CHEF, then look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above its 50-day at $22.28 or above more near-term support at $20.95, and then once it breaks out above its 52-week high at $24.10 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above that level with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action o 123,609 shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then CHEF will set up to enter new 52-week high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $26 to its all-time high of $27.26 a share.

To see more stocks with notable insider buying, check out the Stocks With Big Insider Buying portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.

Hot Financial Stocks For 2015

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Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

[video] Hilton Worldwide Files for IPO

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The S&P 500 is trying for its eighth consecutive positive close, although it is slightly in the red halfway through Thursday's session. TheStreet's Brittany Umar and Antoine Gara break down the rest of the day's events.

The takeover bid from Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners for Dell (DELL) was approved by shareholders today and Hilton Worldwide filed for its IPO.

Umar said the offering could be up to $1.25 billion and will likely be one of the most closely watched of this year.

The company was bought by The Blackstone Group (BX) in 2007 for $26 billion, Gara said. He added that Blackstone has been focused on building out and leveraging the premium brand name of Hilton and has significantly cleaned up its financial profile. Coupled with stronger cash flows and an improved EBITDA, the rebounding lodging market also makes for a better IPO environment, Gara said, concluding that the IPO will allow Blackstone to focus on other high-return assets. -- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich. Follow @BretKenwell

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Postage Hike Savings Die Saturday, Stamps.com, UPS, and FedEx Mirror

If prices of goods or services are rising or falling, it often means that someone is winning and someone is losing as a result. As a general service reminder, and hopefully a money-saving reminder, Saturday is the last day to buy postage stamps from the US Postal Service before the price hike takes effect on January 26, 2014. Despite some shipping sector concerns, this does act as a base rate hike for all shipping providers – 3 of which are public companies.

First Class Mail Forever Stamps will be $0.49, versus $0.46 ahead of the price hike. First Class Mail International Global Forever stamps will be $1.15, up from $1.10 ahead of the price hike. This means hopefully that the USPS will lose less money in 2014 than it did in prior years. Still, that is on a “hopefully” status.

Then there is that lucky or unlucky outcome of price hikes. The public will pay more for stamps, making you and me the losers in this. The question to ask is whether or not Stamps.com Inc. (NASDAQ: STMP) just get a built-in revenue booster per customer on a static basis?

The online and customizable postage service provider has a market capitalization rate of $627 million, and the $38.96 price (after a 0.2% gain on a really bad market day) compares to a 52-week range of $22.35 to $49.40. The consensus price target of the three recognized analysts that follow this small stock is $49.75, but the median price target is lower at $47.25.

Where this gets interesting is that the earnings per share estimates for 2014 have only risen to $2.48 per share from $2.46 per share in the last month. And the sales growth for 2013, expected to be 11.8% to $129.3 million, is expected to be 9.7% to $141.79 in 2014. The company serves close to 500,000 customers and it has already released its 2014 USPS Postage Rate Increase Guide.

Stamps.com also made the reminder that United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) are raising ground shipping rates by an average of 4.9% for 2014. A look at the UPS site shows that its price hikes became effective December 30, 2013. After its Christmas rush earnings disclosure took away some of the gusto of the bulls, the 4.9% average hike for UPS shown on its UPS Ground and UPS Air and international services may matter. The actual effective dates were listed as January 23, 2014 on the 2014 rate page. Analysts are calling for a 5% revenue gain in 2014 for UPS, versus what is now only a 2.9% revenue hike in 2013.

FedEx updated its 2014 shipping rate changes on January 6, 2014. FedEx showed that the FedEx Express package and freight rates increased an average of 3.9% for U.S., U.S. export and U.S. import services on its 2014 rates page. The consensus estimates from Wall Street analysts show a 5.2% revenue hike in 2014 (actually May-2015) versus 3% for the current year ending in May-2014.

So the question to ask is whether UPS and FedEx are expected to get their magic sales growth from the economic growth or the price hikes. The reality is that it looks like both UPS and FedEx are getting that expected revenue growth largely from the price hikes and partially from economic growth. Stamps.com is expected to have decelerating revenue growth, but that growth has to be partly from postage and rate hikes.

As a reminder, pre-purchasing 100 basic first class stamps on Saturday is a savings of $3.00 versus Sunday or thereafter. For businesses which send thousands of letters per month, the savings will be even better to have purchased the “Forever” stamps.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Can News Corp. See a Turnaround?

Top 5 Blue Chip Stocks To Own Right Now

With shares of News Corp. (NYSE:NWSA) trading around $16, is NWSA an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

News Corp. is a diversified media and information services company. The company now operates in five segments: News and Information Services, Cable Network Programming, Digital Real Estate Services, Book Publishing, and Other. News Corp.'s business consists of news and information services, sports programming in Australia, digital real estate services, book publishing, and pay-TV distribution in Australia. Its products and services are distributed under the following brands: the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Herald Sun, The Sun, The Times, HarperCollins Publishers, Fox Sports Australia, and realestate.com.au. Lastly, News Corp. is a developing provider of digital education content, assessment, and delivery services.

Lex Fenwick, the Chief Executive of News Corp’s Dow Jones & Co. unit, has left the company after two years in the job, News Corp said late Tuesday. Mr. Fenwick is succeeded on an interim basis by William Lewis, a veteran journalist currently Chief Creative Officer for News Corp, while a search for a permanent CEO is under way, the company said. Mr. Fenwick, whose resignation is effective immediately, wasn’t available for comment. Dow Jones is the publisher of the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires, as well as publications including Barron’s. Mr. Fenwick, who came to Dow Jones after a long career at Bloomberg LP, had focused on expanding the company’s institutional business.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Weak

News Corp. stock has been trading sideways over the last couple of months. The stock is currently pulling back and may need time to stabilize before heading higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, News Corp. is trading below its rising key averages which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

NWSA

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of News Corp. options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

	Implied Volatility (IV)	30-Day IV Percentile	90-Day IV Percentile
News Corp. options	26.91%	93%	90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
February Options	Steep	Average
March Options	Steep	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on News Corp.’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for News Corp. look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q3	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	N/A	221.05%	140.48%	235.71%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	-3.00%	13.54%	5.01%	2.22%
Earnings Reaction	-1.54%	4.48%	-2.33%	1.60%

News Corp. has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had conflicting feelings about News Corp.’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has News Corp. stock done relative to its peers, Gannett (NYSE:GCI), The New York Times Co. (NYSE:NYT), Pearson (NYSE:PSO), and sector?

	News Corp.	Gannett	The New York Times Co.	Pearson	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	-7.49%	-4.46%	-3.40%	-3.75%	-3.77%

News Corp. has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

News Corp. is a media and information services company that has recently spun-off of its very profitable entertainment segment. The company’s Chief Executive Lex Fenwick, has left the company after two years in the job. The stock has been trading sideways over the last couple of months and is currently pulling back. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been on the rise. However, investors have had mixed feelings about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, News Corp. has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what News Corp. does this quarter.

Monday, January 20, 2014

What Will J.C. Penney Stock Do After Recent News?

With shares of J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) trading around $13, is JCP an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

J.C. Penney is a retailer operating over a thousand department stores in just about every state in the United States and Puerto Rico. Its business consists of selling merchandise and services to consumers through its department stores and website. It sells family apparel and footwear, accessories, fine and fashion jewelry, beauty products through Sephora, and home furnishings. The company has not done too well in recent years but it is doing what it can to be a top provider of apparel and related products. The products J.C. Penney is able to produce and market can take the company to rising profits, but it would need to see a change of approach soon.

J.C. Penney former shareholder Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management has sold all of its shares in the struggling retailer to Citigroup (NYSE:C). Citigroup is offering the stake to other investors at $12.90 a share. Ackman has spent three years trying to revitalize the company, but his efforts mostly failed and his J.C. Penney stock was weighing down the performance of the hedge fund. Ackman stepped down from the company's board two weeks ago.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Weak

J.C. Penney stock has witnessed a disastrous decline over the last several quarters. The stock is now bouncing off of multi-year lows. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, J.C. Penney is trading below its key averages which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

JCP

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of J.C. Penney options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

J.C. Penney Options

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67.51%

33%

30%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

	Put IV Skew	Call IV Skew
September Options	Steep	Average
October Options	Steep	Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Decreasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on J.C. Penney’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for J.C. Penney look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

	2013 Q2	2013 Q1	2012 Q4	2012 Q3
Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)	-297.01%	-110.67%	-518.09%	16.42%
Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)	-11.88%	-16.40%	-28.41%	-26.57%
Earnings Reaction	5.97%	-4.15%	7.37%	-16.96%

J.C. Penney has seen decreasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had mixed feelings about J.C. Penney’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has J.C. Penney stock done relative to its peers Macy’s (NYSE:M), Sears (NASDAQ:SHLD), Kohl’s (NYSE:KSS), and sector?

	J.C. Penney	Macy’s	Sears	Kohl’s	Sector
Year-to-Date Return	-30.10%	12.38%	-0.27%	16.57%	9.15%

J.C. Penney has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

J.C. Penney aims to provide the latest apparel and household products to consumers and companies across most of the United States and Puerto Rico. In recent news, Bill Ackman has sold all of its shares of the company to Citigroup after leaving the board. The stock has been declining over the last few years but is now seeing a bounce from lows. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been decreasing which has produced mixed feelings among investors in the company. Relative to its peers and sector, J.C. Penney has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what J.C. Penney does this coming quarter.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Hot housing markets that are cooling down

The national housing market is by most measures recovering at a healthy clip. Home prices in some of the hardest-hit markets — places like Reno, Nev., and Phoenix, Ariz. — were up by more than 30% in the third quarter of this year, compared to the same period last year. But while many cities have seen housing market activity heat up, others that were recently among the hottest in the nation have cooled off.

Realtor.com's Quarterly Turnaround Towns Report measures the strength of the recovery in the nation's large housing markets. The site ranked the markets with the biggest declines in inventory and inventory age, and the biggest increases in home prices, as markets leading the nation's recovery in growth and demand. 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the eight metropolitan areas that were, according to Realtor.com's rank, among the hottest markets in the country at the beginning of the year, but as of the third quarter have cooled down considerably.

Many of these markets were among the hardest hit by the housing crisis. Cities like Lakeland, Fla., Reno, Nev., and Bakersfield, Calif., had homes lose more than half their value during the collapse. As Alison Schwartz, vice president at Realtor.com, explained, it is not surprising that these markets were among the hottest at the beginning of this year. "Markets that were significantly impacted by the housing crisis have further to accelerate in order to get back to equilibrium conditions — whereas, markets that were less affected by the housing crisis have less room for acceleration."

It appears, however, that the rapid recovery in these markets has slowed.

One of the most obvious indicators of a cooling housing market is a slowing of home price growth. In places like Ventura, Calif., and Orlando, Fla., home prices rose by roughly 25% last year. But in the most recent quarter, prices rose by just 2.1% and 0.5%, respectively. In all but one of the hot housing markets that are now cooling off, home prices were up 7% or more in the second qua! rter of this year. Last quarter, however, most rose only 2% or less. In Orlando, home prices climbed 10% in the second quarter but did not grow at all last quarter.

The change in the number of homes for sale is also a good indicator of a slowing market. Areas with high demand are likely to see homes scooped off the market faster than they can be added. Most of these housing markets entered the year strong by this measure. Half of them saw the number of homes on the market drop by more than 20%, compared to the beginning of 2012. In Ventura, the decline was more than 40%. In the most recent quarter, however, inventory rose by at least 10% in all but one of the eight markets. In Ventura, inventory grew by 43%.

Homes in these markets sold very quickly at the beginning of this year, but as these markets have cooled off, it is taking longer to sell a property. In the first quarter of 2013, the median inventory age in these eight metropolitan areas was barely a month. In most of these markets now, that figure has risen to more than 60 days. In the Florida metro areas of Lakeland-Winter Haven and Sarasota-Bradenton, the time it takes to sell a home has roughly tripled since the beginning of the year.

To identify the hot housing markets that are cooling off, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the markets that were in the top 25 for Realtor.com's Quarterly Turnaround Town Report rank as of the first quarter of 2013, but fell at least 25 spots by the third quarter of 2013. To rank higher in the turnaround town report, a market needed to have a relatively large increase in median list price and relatively large decreases in inventory and median inventory age. We excluded those markets where home prices rose more than 3% in the most recent quarter. All ranks are out of the 146 large metropolitan areas considered by Realtor.com.

These are the hot housing markets that are cooling down.

1. Ventura, Calif.

> Median home price: $500,000 (5th highest)
> Quarter-over-quarter change: 2.1% (! 45th high! est)
> Year-over-year change: 25.3% (12th highest)
> Median days in inventory: 52 (18th lowest)

Between the first quarters of 2012 and 2013, the median list price for a home in Ventura, already one of the most expensive housing markets in the country, rose by nearly $100,000 to just under $450,000. Between the first and the second quarter of this year, prices rose by 9.1%, but the market appears to have cooled off, and prices were up only 2.1% last quarter. The number of unsold homes on the market jumped between the first and third quarters, from 2,079 to 3,706. Over that same period, the time it took to sell a home increased by more than 60%.

2. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.-Wis.

> Median home price: $220,000 (53rd highest)
> Quarter-over-quarter change: 0.0% (71st lowest)
> Year-over-year change: 17.0% (21st highest)
> Median days in inventory: 51 (tied for 11th lowest)

During the first quarter of 2013, a typical home in Minneapolis sold in just 27 days. This marked a decline from 163 days just one year before. However, by the third quarter, the figure was up to 51 days. At the same time, inventory has risen: In the first quarter, just over 11,000 homes were up for sale; by the third quarter, the number of properties available rose to more than 15,400. Although the Twin Cities' housing market has cooled off a bit, new home construction in the area has recently picked up.

3. Orlando, Fla.

> Median home price: $178,900 (65th lowest)
> Quarter-over-quarter change: 0.5% (65th highest)
> Year-over-year change: 19.4% (17th highest)
> Median days in inventory: 67 (44th lowest)

In the first quarter of 2013, a typical Orlando home lasted only 25 days on the market, down from 162 days in the same quarter of 2012. However, demand for homes in the area tapered off as the year went on. By the third quarter, the median selling time for a home had risen to 67 days. Despite the increase in inventory, however, home prices rem! ain fairl! y strong. As of the most recent quarter, prices are still up more than19% year-over-year, down only slightly from 25% since the first quarter.

24/7 WALL ST.: See the rest of 8 hot housing markets that are cooling down

24/7 Wall St. is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Buy and hold, but monitor your investments regularly

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I remember that when my dad was an equity investor 15-17 years ago he would hold equity stocks for an average of 3-4 years and at times more. In those days information dissemination by corporates was limited. There was nothing like equity research the way it is today and apart from the annual results and AGM there was no connect with the management.

Also, since there were no FII investments, impact of global events was marginal, if any. This has long changed. In today's globalised, internet connected world, where every piece of local and global information is analysed and dissected and regulatory requirements entail constant communication from companies, there is a deluge of information and attendant fluctuation in stock prices.

As a result the propensity of investors to trade has increased manifold. Simultaneously, with the advent of electronic trading and demat holdings, the ease and convenience of trading has increased abundantly as also the commission rates have come down to miniscule levels, again enticing investors to try and make the most of stock price fluctuations. The economic environment has changed dramatically over the years and many new business opportunities have emerged.

The top companies of today are radically different from the high fliers of yester years. Some of the Top Business Houses of 1960-70s are nowhere to be seen. In today's world of T20 cricket and algorithmic trading, there is a constant dilemma of whether to buy and hold or to give in to every piece of news and information to make that quick buck.

To quote the legendary investor, Warren Buffet, Investors should 'see a stock not as something with a ticker symbol that wiggles around but to think about it as part of a business. Don't get elated because something had gone up or depressed because it went down.' Again to quote him 'Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.'

To successfully implement buy and hold strategy it is important that the stock selection is very astute with utmost emphasis on management quality, sustainability of businesses and sufficient margin of safety when investing and the psychological and mental stability to withstand long periods of notional negative returns.

Buy and hold strategy if implemented diligently helps in lowering the probability of wrong decisions, reducing transaction costs and tax outflows and normally enables to achieve superior post tax adjusted returns. Having said that it is imperative that investors regularly monitor their portfolios and analyse the business prospects, management decisions, valuations etc. to reinforce their original beliefs. It is important that this monitoring be periodical and at the same time not too micro.

The trick is to be able to take the call when the going is bad for a company --- that is, the headwinds being temporary, does the management have the wherewithal to make necessary adjustments? It would also be wise to question if the market has over discounted the temporary setbacks. If investors devote sufficient time and invest in businesses which they understand, implementing a buy and hold strategy is suitable. Investors looking for long term capital appreciation and having adequate patience to stay invested across cycles should only think of attempting buy and hold strategy.

To summarize, in today's world of instant gratification and inundation of information and experts(so called) , it is a challenge to shut out the noise and not get carried away by the temporary hype about stocks, sectors and managements. Successful investing is all about the time you are invested for than about timing your investment. It is about investing to your strengths and riding your successful investments over a sufficiently long period of time and being patient enough to wait for your sweet spot than worrying about having a share in the pie of every success story going around.